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zondag, december 14, 2003

posted by Sander : 13:10 [print]
Goed nieuws, hopelijk zal dit Irak wat rustiger maken...

UPDATE [maandag]: Implicaties.

Enerzijds kan de vangst het gewapend verzet verminderen, omdat Irakese 'collaborateurs' minder bang zijn voor vergelding als Saddam terug zou komen:
I think guerilla attacks will intensify before they fade away, but I think this is basically the death knell for the opposition. With Saddam gone, the locals should be less afraid of turning the guerillas in -- there was clearly fear among many that Saddam would return to power and punish those who had aided the coalition.

Anderzijds kan het gewapend verzet juist groter worden, omdat Iraki's die tegen de bezetting zijn niet meer hoeven te vrezen dat Saddam terugkomt als de VS weg zou gaan:
more and more Iraqis were saying before Saddam's capture that the one reason they would not join the resistance to US occupation was the fear that - if the Americans withdrew - Saddam would return to power. Now that fear has been taken away

Juan Cole (mijn beste bron van informatie over Irak) beschrijft zijn vrouws gedachten:
She said that many Shiites in East Baghdad, Basra, and elsewhere may have been timid about opposing the US presence, because they feared the return of Saddam. Saddam was in their nightmares, and the reprisals of the Fedayee Saddam are still a factor in Iraqi politics. Now that it is perfectly clear that he is finished, she suggested, the Shiites may be emboldened. Those who dislike US policies or who are opposed to the idea of occupation no longer need be apprehensive that the US will suddenly leave and allow Saddam to come back to power. They may therefore now gradually throw off their political timidity, and come out more forcefully into the streets when they disagree with the US.
De tijd zal het leren.
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